Research and analysis
Gaming and prediction-market law, one mechanic at a time.
How each gaming and prediction-market mechanic works, and where it is enforced. By Kale Pasch, JD, CFA, a former Skadden, Arps attorney.
32 published pieces
- Sweepstakes casinos 12
- Prediction markets 11
- Loot boxes and skins 5
- Online casinos and sportsbooks 3
- Supplier licensing 1
Published on this site
- Loot boxes and skinsCard breaks and livestreamed pack openings: retail sale or lottery?What California’s and New York’s tests ask, what is alleged in the pending matters over randomized card breaks, and what eBay, Whatnot and Fanatics Live require of a break in their own rules.Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min
- Loot boxes and skinsGacha odds disclosure: what app stores, the FTC, Korea and China requireWhat a game must disclose about randomized items, and where, under the Apple and Google store rules, an FTC order, Korea’s enforcement decree and a 2016 Chinese ministry notice, with one publisher’s disclosure as an example.Oct 17, 2026 · 6 min
- Loot boxes and skinsMystery card packs and box breaks: the structures and their economicsFive ways platforms’ own rules let randomized cards be sold online, what each tells the buyer in advance, and what a break costs the seller in published fees, with one worked example whose assumptions are labelled.Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min
- Online casinos and sportsbooksOnline casinos and sportsbooks: responsible-gaming rules, state by stateWhat six states’ regulations tell a licensed online casino or sportsbook to offer a player: limits, self-exclusion, pauses and marketing. Quoted from New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New York, Illinois and Ohio, with a table that says where a rule was not read.Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min
- Online casinos and sportsbooksOnline casinos and sportsbooks: the B2B opportunity in a regulated marketWhat licensed operators say they buy from suppliers, how one supplier reports being paid, what a supplier licence costs and requires in two states, and where the record shows room for a new company.Oct 17, 2026 · 6 min
- Online casinos and sportsbooksOnline casinos and sportsbooks: where responsible-gaming rules have been enforcedFive regulator-published records of fines for self-exclusion and responsible-gaming failures: three New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement documents and two Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board releases, quoted, with the rules they cite.Oct 17, 2026 · 6 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: a build checklist for staying inside the passive-software letterThe ten conditions of CFTC Staff Letter 26-25 turned into product and contract questions, in the order a team meets them: the team, the product, the registrant, onboarding, disclosures, marketing, records and filings.Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: building a company — the layers, how each is paid, and where a startup can competeA prediction-market business can sit in one of nine layers, from the exchange to the compliance tooling beneath it. What each layer is licensed as, how the published fee schedules and SEC filings say it is paid, what entering it has cost where a record states the price, and where the record shows room for a new company.Oct 17, 2026 · 19 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: building on the Phantom letter — passive software, introducing broker or commodity trading advisorCFTC staff’s September 2026 no-action position lets a front end for regulated event contracts launch without registering as an introducing broker, on ten conditions. What the position lets a startup build and charge for, which designs sit outside it, and what the registered paths cost, from the letters, the rules and NFA’s own pages.Oct 17, 2026 · 28 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: contract categories, and what each needs from a settlement sourceThe statute and rule that sort event contracts, the Commission’s June 2026 proposal on which categories involve gaming, a court’s ruling on election contracts, three exchange certifications and the state records that concern sports. What the documents say about each category.Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: how each layer makes moneyWhat the published fee schedules, program filings and SEC filings say about revenue per contract, per customer and per partner at each layer, with one worked example per layer and its assumptions stated.Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: insider trading and integrity on sports event contractsWho may not trade a sports event contract, who sets that rule, and who enforces it: the federal provisions, the exchanges’ own rules, the leagues’ agreements with the Commission, the two published disciplinary cases and one state’s statute for comparison.Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min
Start here
- Sweepstakes casinosThe Free Play That Costs EverythingHow sweepstakes became America’s shadow casino industry — and why the states are finally shutting it down.Jun 9, 2026 · 57 min (opens on Medium)
- Loot boxes and skinsHow Valve’s Loot Box Empire Exposed the Legal Fiction of Virtual GamblingThe New York Attorney General’s case against Valve, the skin-to-cash market behind it, and five structures that stay compliant.Apr 23, 2026 · 50 min (opens on Medium)
- Prediction marketsThe House That HedgesHow prediction markets are infiltrating the casino floor — and why the entire American gaming regulatory architecture is unprepared.Jun 7, 2026 · 87 min (opens on Medium)
Earlier writing on Medium, by mechanic
Prediction markets
- The Commodity Exchange Act and Prediction MarketsA complete guide to the statute, the guidance, the no-action letters, and the historical precedents that define where event contracts stand.Jun 24, 2026 · 82 min (opens on Medium)
- The Missing HedgeWhy market makers cannot hedge event contracts — and how an options layer hiding inside today’s scalar markets would change that.Jun 18, 2026 · 29 min (opens on Medium)
- The Perpetual Event ContractHow removing expiry from prediction markets creates a new derivative class — and why the funding rate is the missing piece.Jun 15, 2026 · 93 min (opens on Medium)
- The Instruments That Never Expire: How Prediction Markets Became Derivatives ExchangesKalshi and Polymarket are launching perpetual futures. The move reveals what prediction markets always were — and what regulators failed to see.May 10, 2026 · 40 min (opens on Medium)