Research
Prediction markets: legal research
How each gaming mechanic works, and where it is enforced. By Kale Pasch, JD, CFA, a former Skadden, Arps attorney.
10 of 31 pieces
- Sweepstakes casinos 12
- Prediction markets 10
- Loot boxes and skins 5
- Online casinos and sportsbooks 3
- Supplier licensing 1
Published on this site
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: a build checklist for staying inside the passive-software letterThe ten conditions of CFTC Staff Letter 26-25 turned into product and contract questions, in the order a team meets them: the team, the product, the registrant, onboarding, disclosures, marketing, records and filings.Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: building a company — the layers, how each is paid, and where a startup can competeA prediction-market business can sit in one of nine layers, from the exchange to the compliance tooling beneath it. What each layer is licensed as, how the published fee schedules and SEC filings say it is paid, what entering it has cost where a record states the price, and where the record shows room for a new company.Oct 17, 2026 · 19 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: building on the Phantom letter — passive software, introducing broker or commodity trading advisorCFTC staff’s September 2026 no-action position lets a front end for regulated event contracts launch without registering as an introducing broker, on ten conditions. What the position lets a startup build and charge for, which designs sit outside it, and what the registered paths cost, from the letters, the rules and NFA’s own pages.Oct 17, 2026 · 28 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: contract categories, and what each needs from a settlement sourceThe statute and rule that sort event contracts, the Commission’s June 2026 proposal on which categories involve gaming, a court’s ruling on election contracts, three exchange certifications and the state records that concern sports. What the documents say about each category.Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: how each layer makes moneyWhat the published fee schedules, program filings and SEC filings say about revenue per contract, per customer and per partner at each layer, with one worked example per layer and its assumptions stated.Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: insider trading and integrity on sports event contractsWho may not trade a sports event contract, who sets that rule, and who enforces it: the federal provisions, the exchanges’ own rules, the leagues’ agreements with the Commission, the two published disciplinary cases and one state’s statute for comparison.Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: passive software, introducing broker or advisor — the three paths comparedSide by side, from the staff letter, the Commission’s rules and NFA’s own pages: what each path allows a front end to do, what it asks for before launch and what the published figures are.Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: responsible gaming when an event contract looks like a betWhat a state sports-betting rule requires of a licensed sportsbook, what an exchange and a broker publish for their own customers, what the industry codes ask, and a checklist for a startup that wants to meet both.Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: seven businesses inside the stackWhat a startup can be in this market besides an exchange: the registration that applies to each of seven businesses, or the staff letter that removes it, and one public example of each from the filings.Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min
- Prediction marketsPrediction markets: the CFTC’s proposal on affiliated market makersThe CFTC has proposed rules for exchanges whose own affiliate trades on them, and it names prediction markets as the place the question matters most. What the proposal would require, what one exchange’s rulebook says today, and how to comment by October 5, 2026.Oct 2, 2026 · 5 min